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Europe’s security planners are increasingly focused on the blurring line between conventional and nuclear missile forces along NATO’s eastern flank. Mobile missile systems that were originally designed for conventional precision strikes are now being discussed in a nuclear context, raising concerns about escalation, warning time, and attribution during a crisis.
Recent statements by Belarusian officials have brought renewed attention to the Polonez missile system, a truck-mounted launcher already in service with Belarusian forces. According to remarks made by senior lawmakers, work is underway with Russian specialists to enable nuclear use for certain missile and aviation platforms, with Polonez cited among them. While no technical details or timelines were provided, and no independent confirmation has been released, the suggestion alone highlights a shift in how the system could be employed.
According to Interesting Engineering, Polonez was originally developed as a conventional operational-tactical missile system, combining a wheeled, highly mobile launcher with guided rockets designed for precision strikes. Mounted on an eight-wheel MZKT-7930 chassis, the launcher can quickly relocate, fire, and redeploy, complicating detection and targeting. The system fires 301-millimeter missiles with ranges of up to 200 kilometers in its earlier versions and close to 300 kilometers in the newer Polonez-M variant, which entered service in late 2023. Guidance relies on inertial navigation with satellite updates, providing accuracy measured in tens of meters.
From a defense perspective, the concern is not the missile’s technical performance alone, but its potential role in a mixed conventional-nuclear posture. A mobile launcher capable of carrying either conventional or nuclear payloads creates ambiguity for adversaries, especially during large-scale exercises or periods of heightened tension. This ambiguity can compress decision-making timelines and increase the risk of miscalculation.
Belarus has already integrated Russian Iskander-M missile systems into its forces, platforms widely believed to be nuclear-capable. Analysts note that references to rehearsed “algorithms” for nuclear use during recent joint exercises may relate more to these systems than to an imminent nuclear Polonez variant. Still, expanding nuclear options across multiple launcher types would further entrench Belarus within Russia’s strategic framework.
For European security, the broader issue is the steady expansion of mobile, long-range strike systems that can operate across the nuclear-conventional divide. Even without confirmed modifications, the discussion itself signals a regional shift toward greater reliance on flexible, high-impact missile forces—one that adds another layer of complexity to an already fragile security environment.
