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INSS, By Amos Yadlin and Arie Golov
Many in the West and in Israel have warned of a tough Iranian response and escalation into regional war in the event of a military strike against the Iranian nuclear program. Close scrutiny, however, suggests that these assessments are exaggerated, with the likely Iranian response far more limited. Moreover, such overestimation serves the Iranians, providing an excellent tool for deterrence, and dilutes the goal of a credible military threat prompting the regime to agree to a diplomatic solution.
IHLS – Israel Homeland Security
In their new article, Amos Yadlin and Avner Golov analyze Iran’s capabilities and the range of possible Iranian response toward Israel, including the response capabilities of Iran’s allies in the region, particularly Syria and Hizbollah. They challenge the scenario of a regional war in the wake of a military strike against Iran’s nuclear program, and offer recommendations for a response to the anticipated Iranian retaliation that would reduce the likelihood of extensive regional escalation.
- If an Israeli strike against Iran is to take place, it should be a pinpoint, surgical attack.
- A clear message must be sent to Iran: An Iranian response to such a strike would lead to escalation of conflict and a power Israeli-American retaliation.
- Strengthening Israeli defenses. An Iranian response, even a limited one, is likely. Israel’s various defense systems must be up to the task.
- Planning for the day after: Even after a short-lived conflict economic sanctions must continue, and so must a credible military threat. Only this way Iran will eventually open up its facilities to IAEA inspectors, and avoid the development of its military nuclear program over time.
For the full article, click here.
