Holiday of Nowrūz, the Iranian nuclear and President Obama’s policy

Holiday of Nowrūz, the Iranian nuclear and President Obama’s policy

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4945421_sNowrūz, is one of the most important holidays in Iran dating back to the days of ancient Persia. The Holiday expresses the values ​​of peace, solidarity and good neighborliness (1). Since he was elected President of the United States, Barack Obama, sends greetings to the people of Iran every year on the occasion of the Persian New Year which began on March 21st. Utilizing a form of ‘soft diplomacy’ in his message to the Iranian people, President Obama relies on rhetoric to convince the public that the policy his administration wants to maintain in the present as well as in the future involves Iran’s threat to become nuclear and the response of the International community to that threat through the imposition of more severe sanctions as well as the possibility of using the military option. Even if partial and limited in nature, the content analysis in this paper relies on the last five years of the Obama Presidency. This document may help provide a picture concerning the trends, which could  reflect indirectly, on the mood and the rhetoric of the U.S. administration concerning the Iranian nuclear issue.

Analysis of the five different New Year messages to the Iranians over the past five years indicates the President focused each year on a different issue regarding Iran. In the first year, Obama appealed to the Iranian regime for dialogue and resolution. In the second, he focused on the riots against the election in Iran. In the third, the President talked about the state of human rights in Iran as an explicit criticism of the regime. In the fourth, Iran was described as living under an ‘electronic display’ (2) of the regime which imposed censorship on the media in the country. In the fifth however, the President chose to raise the nuclear issue for the first time, and in detail.


Relation to the Iranian people and regime

The change in the Presidents rhetoric for his New Year messages over the years is striking with regard to his attitude towards the Iranian people.  While at the beginning the President chose to turn mainly to the Iranian leadership, over the years he turned more and more to the people of Iran. For example, in his first message in 2009,  the President stated, “I want to speak directly to the leaders of the Islamic Republic of Iran” while in his 2010 message he remarked, “They (the regime) turn their back on a path that could bring more opportunity to all Iranians, and allow a great culture to find its just place in the community of nations”.

Gradually, the President transfers the main content of his New Year messages directly to the people of Iran when he turns to the young people and praises them. For example, in his message for 2011,  the President told them, “Your talent, your hope and choices will be those that will shape the future of Iran, and help light up the world”. In his 2012 message, the President appealed directly to the Iranian people, as if he wanted to talk to them, person to person, “America wants to hear your opinions and understand your aspirations. This is why we set up a virtual embassy, so you can see for yourself what the U.S. says and does”. Compared with the tone of the previous four years of messages he sent to the people of Iran, the President returned to speak primarily to the Iranian regime for his message of 2013.

Also, in reference to the Iranian regime it is possible to notice a change in the use of escalating rhetoric over the years of holiday messages. For example, in the message of the first year in 2009, the President stated at first, “There are real differences between us,” and then he went on to say, “the process will not move forward with threats”. In 2010, the President described the “regime’s hostility towards America”, while in 2011, he aimed his blame at  “the Iranian government which has shown a lot more care for preserving its power than respecting the rights of the Iranian people”. He then went on to show examples of Iranian citizens who were persecuted by the regime when he said, “Over the last two years the regime has shown its’ campaign of intimidation and abuse”. In 2012 the President exacerbates his rhetoric further by saying: “The government interferes with radio and television broadcasts, using internet censorship and control of what people can see and say”. However, if in four years the messages were marked by worsening rhetoric against the Iranian regime, the message in 2013 indicated a revolution had taken place. The President returned and appealed more to the Iranian regime and less to the people.


Diplomacy

During the past five years of New Year messages, the President utilized diplomatic rhetoric as a means of crisis management. However, it seems that there is no uniformity in his rhetoric about the Iranian regime. For example, in 2009, the president said, “We are now committed to diplomacy that will address a variety of issues that are before us and seek beneficial relations between the United States, Iran and the International community”. In his 2010 message he expressed himself by saying, “Our proposal for comprehensive diplomatic ties is standing”. In his 2011 message he described the Iranian regime as “stiff and puzzling”, and in 2012 he said: ” There is no reason that the U.S. and Iran will be controversial”. Finally, in 2013, the President said, “I hope they choose a better path – for the Iranian people and for the world”. It should be noted also in the message for this year, 2013, the President sounded somewhat apologetic when talking about the regime. For example, he stated, “As I said all along, the United States prefers to resolve this issue peacefully, diplomatically.”  He then went on to say: “The United States, along with the rest of the International community,  is willing to reach a solution”.


The Iranian nuclear issue

Content analysis suggests that in the first four years of messages the word ‘nuclear’ is mentioned only twice, and it seems that the President chose to address the Iranian nuclear issue only laconically. However, the President recognizes Iran’s right to become nuclear. For example, in 2010, he said, “The U.S. recognizes Iran’s right to peaceful nuclear energy”, while in 2012 he said, “the Iranian government has a responsibility to meet its obligations on the nuclear program”.

However, in the message for 2013, there was a sharp change. This message, was mostly about Iran’s nuclear program and the President chose to focus on the controversy surrounding the nuclear issue. For example, the President stated, “Iranian leaders say their nuclear program is for medical research and energy. But as of today, they are not able to convince the International community that their nuclear activities are intended for peaceful purposes only”. In addition, in the 2013 message, the President chose to emphasize more than he had in previous years, and to define the danger of Iranian nuclear arms by saying, “This includes serious and growing concerns of the world about Iran’s nuclear program, which threaten peace and security in the region and beyond.”


Isolation and sanctions in response to Iran’s nuclear

As mentioned, in the current messages of 2013, the President selected the nuclear issue, as an issue to be raised including details. However, despite the fact that he used the word ‘nuclear’ seven times (compared to twice in the previous four years), the main tool presented in the message this year was in response to Iran’s irresponsiveness to its isolation. In addition, the President repeated the word ‘isolation’ three times (out of four in all the years of messages), as an American response. For example, the first time he said, “This is why … so now Iran is isolated,” while the second time he said, “Iran’s isolation is not good for the world as well.” For the  third time he said, “If the Iranian government will continue on its current path it will just bring more isolation to Iran”.

In this context an interesting point can be raised. If insulation is the response of the United States and the International community to Iran’s non-consent about the nuclear issue, it can be expected that this insulation will take place through the use of severe sanctions. But despite the fact that tough sanctions have already been taken on Iran, the word ‘sanction’ was only mentioned once in all of the New Year messages delivered to the Iranian people by the President over the past five years.


Summary

The content analysis of this paper relies on the five messages of the President in the last five years and is inherently limited. The message for 2013 was the first time that the President mentioned the Iranian nuclear program explicitly and referred to it extensively. Despite the use of direct rhetoric, he chose to describe the reaction to Iran’s irresponsiveness to the United States and international community claims in the form of continued isolation. Moreover, the nature of Iran’s continued isolation was made through diplomatic rhetoric, not threats. 

MSE Logo - EN INSSContent analysis of the messages delivered by the President over the last five years, implies that the U.S. government, apparently, is not heading towards a military confrontation with Iran and has chosen to adopt a policy of declared diplomacy over the rhetoric of a threat of armed conflict. However, it seems that the President continues to ‘prepare the ground’ for dialogue with the Iranian people ‘over the head’ of the regime, and there are a number of important implications from this: First, the President has the sympathy of the Iranian opposition, which in turn, presses the regime. Second, when applied directly to the people, itr can embarrass and weaken the regime. Third, the President is signaling to other regimes in the world, and in general to their citizens, of his public support for the possibility of exercise their rights for a more democratic and free regime. Fourth, the option to open direct contact with the Iranian people is used as an instrument to accumulate both political and press support towards increased American and International public opinion. Fifth, despite all the above, if in the future a military decision is taken to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, the President is tying the fate of the regime and the Iranian people as one, as inseparable partners in the process, and as such, bearing all responsibility for the results.

By Shlomi Yass, MA in Government – Counter-Terrorism and Homeland Security and
Interim at the Military and Strategic Affairs Program, INSS

 

(1) International Day of Nowruz”, UN” – http://www.un.org/en/events/nowruzday

(2)  On Nowruz, President Obama Speaks to the Iranian People, March 20, 2012

http://www.whitehouse.gov/photos-and-video/video/2012/03/20/nowruz-president-obama-speaks-iranian-people-arabic


The five messages of President Barack Obama over the last five years from the White House website:

The President’s Message to the Iranian People, March 19, 2009

http://www.whitehouse.gov/video/The-Presidents-Message-to-the-Iranian-People

President Obama’s Nowruz Message, March 19, 2010

http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2010/03/19/president-obamas-nowruz-message

President Obama’s Nowruz Message, March 20, 2011

http://www.whitehouse.gov/photos-and-video/video/2011/03/20/president-obamas-nowruz-message

On Nowruz, President Obama Speaks to the Iranian People, March 20, 2012

http://www.whitehouse.gov/photos-and-video/video/2012/03/20/nowruz-president-obama-speaks-iranian-people-arabic

To Mark Nowruz, President Obama Speaks to the People and Leaders of Iran, March 18, 2013

http://www.whitehouse.gov/blog/2013/03/18/mark-nowruz-president-obama-speaks-people-and-leaders-iran