“Saudi SARS” spreads globally thanks to mass religious gatherings in Middle East
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עברית (Hebrew)
Researchers say that the life-threatening MERS coronavirus which recently emerged in the Middle East could spread faster and wider thanks to two international mass gatherings involving millions of people in the next few months – the Umrah pilgrimage and the Hajj. The researchers describe the most likely pathways of international spread based upon worldwide patterns of air travel.
A team of researchers led by Dr. Kamran Khan of St. Michael’s Hospital in Toronto, Canada, encouraged health care providers to learn from the experience of SARS by anticipating rather than reacting to the introduction of MERS in travelers returning from the Middle East. SARS, which was also caused by a previously unknown coronavirus, killed 800 people worldwide a decade ago, including forty-four in Toronto, and cost the Canadian economy an estimated $2 billion.
A St. Michael’s Hospital release reports that the MERS corona virus, which appears to have emerged in the Middle East in early 2012, has spread to several countries in Western Europe and North Africa where there have been localized clusters of cases. Worldwide about eighty cases have been confirmed, with a mortality rate of more than 50 percent.
Khan said there is potential for the virus to spread faster and wider during two annual events that draw millions of residential and foreign Muslims to Saudi Arabia. The first is Umrah, a pilgrimage that can be performed at any time of year but is considered particularly auspicious during the month of Ramadan, which began on July 9th and ends on August 7th. The second is the Hajj, a 5-day pilgrimage required of all physically and financially able Muslims at least once in their life. It takes place October 13-18 this year and is expected to draw more than three million people.
Khan’s team analyzed 2012 worldwide airline traffic and historic hajj data to predict population movements in and out of Saudi Arabia and the broader Middle East during these two mass gatherings to help countries assess their potential for MERS introduction via returning travelers and pilgrims. He also used World Bank economic and per capita health care expenditure data to help gauge individual countries’ abilities to detect imported MERS in a timely manner and mount an effective public health response.
