Egozi: USA and Allies Caught Off Guard by North Korean Threat

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By Arie Egozi

The US has only a few options at the still verbal conflict with North Korea. In the aftermath of Obama’s eight-year presidency, during which the US did not take seriously the threat by the isolated state, the train has already left the station and its speed is only accelerating.

Experts in the US warned that North Korea could hit California within two years, and this comes after last week, this rebellious state succeeded in launching an intercontinental ballistic missile for the first time, which according to evaluations could reach Alaska at present. At the same time, the US army announced that it had completed a successful test in the interception of medium-range missiles with the THAAD missile defense system deployed in South Korea. Experts say that the capabilities of this defense system to intercept ballistic missiles is very limited.

The experts evaluate that in the future, the Hwasong-14 missile will be able to carry a half a ton warhead and reach a 9,700 km range. At this stage, the approximated range of this missile is 7,000-8,000 km.

Experts added that at the present stage, the missile will have difficulty hitting even a large target such as a city, due to its limitations re-entering the atmosphere. However, within a year or two of testing and further development, this missile could be equipped with a nuclear warhead and launched towards targets on the US west coast, maybe accurately enough to destroy soft targets and naval bases.

The isolated state has accelerated the development of its nuclear program under Kim Jong-Un’s rule, in spite of international sanctions. Donald Trump’s administration has been trying to recruit China in order to put pressure on North Korea but has not succeeded so far to bring about a real change. An attempt to condemn the recent missile launch at the UN Security Council last week was blocked by Russia, which, too, refuses to increase the pressure on Pyongyang.

In Pyongyang the first launch of the intercontinental ballistic missile has been hailed, and a special concert, attended by Kim, was held on Sunday in honor of the technological achievement. The young tyrant enjoyed the applause of the cheering masses that gathered to listen to the songs of praise to the Communist regime’s technological achievements.

Although the US army claims that the missile launched represented a new type of threat, the army clarified that it possessed the response. The THAAD system test over the Pacific Ocean, planned a few months ago, was the first one against medium-range missiles, which are considered by experts as more rapid and more difficult to intercept than short-range missiles.

The US also has ballistic missile defense system, called GMD. The system missiles are stored in 44 fortified underground silos throughout the US. Experts say that the system has only a primary capability. “This system could doubtedly offer the right response to a nuclear-head missile attack,” said one expert.

The capabilities of South Korea and Japan vis a vis the North Korean are also very limited. Japan has advanced PAC 3 Patriot missiles but their capability is limited.

Japan has been developing in collaboration with the US a new defense missile from a special SA-3 model, but this is only a development program, while “the US was caught off guard, as well as all its allies,” according to the expert.

South Korea has been equipped with a US-made THAAD missile system, but as said, their capabilities are also limited vis a vis the threat.

In sum, there are defense systems with limited capabilities. Obamas’s two terms at the White House caused the situation in which the US, as well as its allies, are not prepared to confront the North Korean threat. Now everything depends on the mood of the North Korean leader in one of the next few days.

The experts unanimously agree that only a large scale preemptive attack on North Korea could minimize the threat and that any postponement would only increase it both from the point of view of the nuclear capability and the ability to launch ballistic missiles with improved range and accuracy.

By the way, at the same time the experts say that the nuclear agreement with Iran has been creating the same situation vis a vis this state. “The agreement simply postponed the problem posed by this state, whose intentions are clear. Nobody learns any lesson in the world,” said one expert.