Iran offered Pakistan 4 billion dollars for nuke
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Does Iran actually want to destroy “the Zionist regime” and does Israel only fight “the existential threat”? Or is it the other way around, and Iran only wants a weapon of mass destruction to defend against the Israeli nuclear threat? Looking at the horrors of the Iran-Iraq war, where more than 700,000 Iranian soldiers and citizens lost their lives, 100,000 of them to Iraqi gas attacks, on the surface it seems that the Iranian fears are more justified than Israel’s. That, however, is not the whole truth. After analyzing hundreds of documents and witness reports, it can be determined that Iran, despite claims to an Islamic religious ban on nuclear weapons, is determined to develop weapons of mass destruction for political reasons. The basic strategic assumption of the Iranian military intelligence is that the main goal of Israel’s nuclear policy is to maintain atomic exclusivity. The US is determined to put a stop to Iran’s nuclear aspiration not because it wants to defend Israel; the US believes that the development of an Iranian nuclear weapon might cause other Middle Eastern states to pursue nuclear capabilities – either purchasing weapons from other countries or developing their own.
Ami Dor On
Does Iran really want to destroy Israel, as declared by former President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad many times in the past, and Israel, meanwhile, started a global campaign to protect itself? Or is it the other way around, and Iran wants nuclear weapons to protect itself against the Israeli threat? The answer depends on who you’re asking, and who is behind the propaganda of fear and threats on both sides. Ahmedinejad, seriously damaging Iran’s image and economy with his carelessness, did make some very overt threats which Israel couldn’t ignore. On the other hand, Iran itself can’t ignore the threats made by top Israeli officials, concerning Israeli “second strike” capabilities or even a preventative nuclear strike.
Looking at the facts, and after analyzing hundreds of documents, it appears the Iranian fears are more justified. The Iran-Iraq war was a very traumatic experience. More than 700,000 died, both soldiers and civilians, while more than a million were injured. Maybe that horror led to Iran developing its own nuclear capabilities, despite repeated claims that Islamic law forbids the development of weapons of mass destruction. A 2005 interview with General Mirza Aslam Beg, former chief of the Pakistani army, backs this assessment. In the interview Beg talked about nuclear non-proliferation, and said “I do not want the next generation to live next to a nuclear Israel. Iran is following in our footsteps and is trying to develop its own capabilities, because it is threatened by Israel’s nuclear weapons.”
The Iran-Iraq war was a bloody conflict between Iran, led by its spiritual leader Ayatollah Humeini, and Sadam Hussein’s Iraq. The eight-year war did not result in any territorial gains for either side, bust cost the lives of more than 2 million soldiers in total from both Iraq and Iran. The estimated number of casualties was 450,000-730,000 for Iran and 150,000-340,000 for Iraq. The total number of those injured or killed was between 1.5 and 3 million people. For Iran the war did result in one thing: The country was deeply scarred by the ordeal, the trauma dictating its policies and its leaders’ statements for years to come. The basis of that national trauma was the fear of deadly gas attacks – more than 100,000 Iranian soldiers and citizens died in Iraqi gas strikes.
Iran still isn’t a “nuclear superpower”, and according to the many publications on the matter still hasn’t decided to produce weapons of mass destruction – atomic, biological or chemical. This policy of avoiding WMD development is presented as an Islamic religious ban on their production and use. According to a fatwa (an Islamic religious decree) by Iran’s spiritual leader Ali Hosseini Khamenei, the Iranian uranium enrichment program, developed over many years, is meant only for peaceful purposes; in addition, the fatwa claims that developing weapons of mass destruction is a serious crime according to Islam.
The Iranian attempts to develop a nuclear program began long before the Iran-Iraq war. The Shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, established the Iranian Organization for Nuclear Energy back in 1974. The US was against this development because it could harm the American nuclear non-proliferation efforts. The US demanded that all its allies ban the sale of materials for nuclear power plants to Iran. When Ayatollah Khomeini came to power in 1979 all nuclear development was stopped due to his religious views, and that state of affairs continued until Kohmeini’s death in 1989. During that time many top Iranian nuclear scientists left the country, looking for better options abroad.
Khamenei, Kohmeini’s successor, renewed Iran’s nuclear program as early as 1990. It included both energy production for “peaceful purposes” and nuclear weapons research. And yet, it wasn’t exactly the same program as before. According to the Iran files at the US International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), Iran began terminating all contact with the west and instead turned to Russia and China for aid, involving both uranium mining and operating heavy water nuclear reactors. The US couldn’t ignore this development and tried to convince Russia and China, by diplomatic means, not to get involved; these efforts ultimately failed.
In the mid 1990s, when information was flowing freely, Iran began independently developing centrifuges for uranium enrichment. The man known as the father of the Pakistani nuclear bomb, Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan, was involved and receiving payment in exchange for sharing his detailed knowledge of centrifuges for uranium enrichment. In 2000 the uranium enrichment facility at Natanz was established, its existence made public largely due to the efforts of a group of Iranian exiles in 2002. These exiles, living in the US, revealed the facility’s true purpose to the media, and since that point the West began increasing pressure on Iran.
In 2006 the AP news agency published a troubling interview with Pakistan’s former chief of staff, General Mirza Aslam Beg, contradicting Iranian propaganda on the matter. Iran, according to Beg, has been trying to develop or purchase nuclear weapons for 20 years. A delegation of top Iranian officials visited Pakistan during his tenure as army chief, and simply asked for one of the bombs from Pakistan’s arsenal. Beg refused, saying that they could have the materials needed for the production, but they have to produce the weapon themselves. “No one helped Pakistan produce the weapon,” he responded. Beg also added that Benazir Bhutto, Pakistan’s Prime Minister at the time, told him that top Iranian officials approached her and offered her four billion dollars for nuclear weapons technology.
There were many publications dealing with Iran’s nuclear aspiration, and they reveal the international community’s assessment of the matter.
Iran claimed from the beginning that its nuclear program was aimed only at producing energy, to address the needs of its growing population. To develop nuclear weapons, claimed Iran, would be a violation of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, and a violation of one of Islam’s basic laws. Iran claimed that by having joined the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, it has the right to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes. A formal declaration came on December 3rd, 2004. Iran’s former President, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, said that his country will have its own nuclear industry, which will not be used for military purposes. According to Rafsanjani Iran did not want nuclear weapons, but neither would he give up nuclear energy production. He added that provocations by the west would not lead Iran to develop nuclear weapons.
A bigger crack in Iran’s peaceful facade appeared in 2007. American intelligence agencies estimated that by 2003 Iran had already designed a nuclear weapon and all the necessary production infrastructure. According to them, though, if it decided to actually produce an atomic bomb it would not be ready before 2013. The intelligence report added that actual Iranian nuclear weapons were unlikely to be operational before 2015, as the country still hasn’t decided to produce them.
Russia was also directly involved in the Iranian nuclear project. Russian President at that time, Dmitry Medvedev, said that Iran will soon have nuclear weapons production capabilities, but he didn’t give any further details.
Two so-called “expert” statements on the matter were made public in late 2007. The chairman of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohamed al Baradei, officially stated that even though Iran is clearly developing nuclear weapons, they need three to eight more years in order to succeed. According to a US National Intelligence Council report published two months later, it’s highly probable that Iran dramatically reduced its nuclear activities back in 2003, and in fact the entire program might have been frozen by mid 2007. The council did admit, however, that Iran has enough raw materials to produce a nuclear weapon by the middle of the next decade, meaning around 2015. The IC stressed that despite these facts, however, Iran’s intentions are still unknown.
Ayatollah Yousef Sanei, in an interview he gave to the San Francisco Chronicle, objected to the development of nuclear weapons on religious grounds. He said that according to Islam it is forbidden to develop and use weapons of mass destruction. According to Sanei the Islamic Republic of Iran, whose very existence is based on its faith in Islam, will never use such weapons.
Despite the somewhat placating, and sometimes contradictory, statements, the western world didn’t believe any of it. According to a joint Russian-American intelligence assessment of Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities, published in 2009, Iran did not present a threat; and even if it did develop intercontinental ballistic missiles and threatened Europe, the threat level would be insignificant. There’s no proof that Iran wishes to develop capabilities that will allow it to attack Europe, and it’s very difficult to imagine a situation in which Iran would actually attack Europe. Iran, also according to the assessment, would need another six to eight years to develop a ballistic missile with a range of 2,000 kilometers capable of carrying a nuclear warhead weighing one ton.
Meir Dagan, former chief of the Israeli Mossad, was being professionally conservative when he stated that Iran will develop a nuclear weapon by 2014. German, French and British sources, however, believe that Iran will need at least 18 months to produce a nuclear weapon, counting from the moment the Iranian government actually gives the order to begin production.
Former Iranian President Ahmedinejad also made some contradictory statements on the matter. After threatening to destroy the “Zionist entity” several times, in October 2011 he gave the following statement in an interview: “We have already expressed our opinion on nuclear weapons. Anyone who wishes to produce nuclear weapons is mentally and politically challenged. Those who want nuclear weapons are stupid, because the atomic age has already ended. Why would Iran produce nuclear weapons today, when they can’t actually be used?”
Ayatollah Khamenei gave similar statements during his meeting with the chairman of the Iranian Nuclear Energy Board in February 2012 “The Iranian nation never wanted a nuclear weapon and will never want it in the future. All the world leaders attacking us day and night on this matter know that Iran does not want nuclear weapons, because the Islamic Republic of Iran – based on logical, religious and theoretical viewpoints – believes that having nuclear weapons is a serious sin.”
At this point an important facet of the official US policy should be mentioned. Military intelligence analysts from various western agencies claim that the real reason the US is very much against the Iranian nuclear program is not defending Israel, but the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. The US believes it must prevent Iran from attaining nuclear capabilities because a nuclear Iran will dramatically change the balance of power in the Middle East, and will significantly weaken the American influence in the region. According to American official policy, a nuclear Iran would cause other countries to follow in its footsteps and develop or purchase their own nuclear weapons. When considering the status of the Middle Eastern Islamic regimes this state of affairs seems especially dangerous. Russian President Vladimir Putin also considers this a threat; in February 2012 he said that Russia is against Iran having nuclear weapons, because that might lead to instability in the region.
The Iranians have been following the Israeli nuclear policy very closely for years. What is their view on the subject, considering the many statements made over the years and the documents published? The Iranians know Israel did not join the non-proliferation treaty, and that the international community believes Israel has different types of nuclear weapons. According to statements made by official and semi-official Israeli sources, Israel considers the Iranian military nuclear program an “existential threat.” Top Iranian officials believe, after considering the evidence, that Israel might actually attack Iran as a “preventative measure.” According to Iranian military intelligence strategic assessments Israel’s goal is to stop any other Middle Eastern state from developing nuclear weapons, thus maintaining Israel’s position as the only Middle Eastern nuclear power.
The Iranian intelligence gave several incidents as examples of Israel’s intentions. In April 1979 Israeli Mossad agents allegedly blew up a French production facility outside Toulouse, a manufacturing site of cores for the Iraqi nuclear reactor. Mossad agents were also involved in the murder of an Egyptian nuclear researcher in Paris, and the murder of two Iraqi engineers, employed by the Iraqi nuclear reactor, in France. The Mossad also took out the Iranian researcher Ardeshir Hassanpour, who was involved in the Iranian nuclear program. The Iranian intelligence believes that the Israelis, as part of their preventative campaign, also target their computer systems. This belief was backed by computer expert Scott Borg; Israel, according to him, is disrupting the networks of Iranian nuclear sites such as the centrifuge arrays in Natanz. Two additional acts by Israel, according to the Iranian intelligence, prove the validity of their assessment: Israel’s most famous act as part of their policy of maintaining nuclear exclusivity was the June 1981 destruction of the Osirak reactor in Iraq; another example is the September 2007 aerial bombardment of the Syrian nuclear facilities at Deir ez-Zor.
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After considering all the evidence there can be only one conclusion: Iran will do everything, no holds barred, to reach the status of a nuclear power. Only one thing remains unclear: Are Iran’s nuclear efforts aimed solely at Israel, or is Iran going to use the threat of the atomic bomb to control the other Middle Eastern oil-producing countries, thus becoming a new superpower.
