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As the 2024 U.S. election day draws near, a new report from the Microsoft Threat Analysis Center (MTAC) has raised alarms about intensified influence efforts from foreign adversaries, notably Russia, Iran, and China. These nations are actively working to undermine U.S. democratic processes through cyber operations and disinformation campaigns.
Recent findings reveal a troubling pattern of activities aimed at swaying public opinion and disrupting electoral integrity. Notably, Iranian cyber actors have been implicated in sending stolen, non-public materials from former President Trump’s campaign to associates of President Biden and U.S. media organizations. This development culminated in the indictment of three Iranian individuals for their roles in a hack-and-leak operation targeting the Trump-Vance campaign, underscoring the serious nature of these threats.
According to Microsoft, while Iranian operatives have primarily focused their efforts on the Trump campaign, Russian actors have pivoted to target Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign since she entered the race. MTAC reports that Russian groups are increasingly leveraging generative AI to create deepfake videos intended to damage Harris’s reputation. For example, one video falsely depicts her making derogatory comments about Trump. These tactics aim to sow dispute and manipulate the narrative surrounding the candidates.
Iran’s influence operations persist despite escalating geopolitical tensions. A group operating under the name “Bushnell’s Men” has recently called for a boycott of the elections, framing their message around candidates’ support for Israel. According to MTAC, this same group attempted to incite anti-Israel protests in American universities. This tactic illustrates a strategy of exploiting social issues to create conflict within U.S. communities. Furthermore, the Iranian cyber group Cotton Sandstorm has been seen scouting election-related websites, suggesting preparations for more direct influence efforts as Election Day approaches.
Meanwhile, China is targeting Republican candidates who advocate for anti-China policies. Their operations have included the dissemination of antisemitic messages and corruption allegations. Although these campaigns may not always achieve high engagement, they reveal China’s continued commitment to influencing U.S. politics.
As Election Day nears, the threat from these foreign actors remains significant. History shows that foreign influence operations can rapidly alter public perception and electoral outcomes. Voters, candidates, and government institutions must be vigilant against deceptive content, especially in the critical 48 hours surrounding the election.
