Who is authorized to press the ‘nuclear red button’ at the time of an existential threat

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By Ami Dor-on

Golda Meir pondered the possibility of committing suicide after Moshe Dayan told her at the end of the second day of Yom Kippur war that the country was heading towards  “destruction as if it were the time of the Third Temple”. According to accounts by foreign reports, the sense of serious danger at that time was so severe that members of Israel’s security cabinet were pushing for a decision to arm  ‘Jericho’ missiles  with nuclear warheads.  These missiles  stationed permanently at the launch site near ‘Sde Micah’, were to stand on ready alert.  The Soviet Union in response to Israel’s alleged nuclear capability, sent nuclear warheads to Egypt by sea in order to put them on the Soviet Scud missiles stationed in Egypt. 

Only those who lived during the greatest days of Moshe Dayan, can understand how terrible was his mental collapse after the second day of Yom Kippur war.  Facing the terrible losses and casualties of the armor and air force on the Egyptian and Syrian frontiers, Dayan found himself losing his temper and experiencing the edge of panic. Not only did he believe it was the end of Israel, but he also allowed his overcharged emotions to adopt a phrase that became historical, “the destruction of the Third Temple”. He did not hide his panic nor his defeatist opinion from Golda Meir, the Prime Minister, nor from the public, when he repeatedly used this irresponsible phrase during a background briefing session with the editors’ committee representing all of Israel’s media.

Journalists who were present at that dramatic meeting reported Dayan’s general sense of shock and bewilderment. Dayan made it clear to the astonished Editors that he intended to appear on TV that evening in order to disclose the truth to the people of Israel, the shocking truth without any embellishment. In practice this did not happen. Golda banned Dayan’s appearance. In Dayan’s place, Golda sent Major General Aharon Yariv to meet with the press and to reveal the hard facts to the public in a moderate and balanced way and most importantly, without any display of panic. 

On that difficult day of October 8^th, 1973, the self-confidence of the Israeli leadership had deteriorated so far that Golda, a tough and determined woman, considered the  option of suicide should the worst happen and Israel were to face ‘total defeat’. Golda admitted these suicidal thoughts three years following the Yom Kippur War during a conversation with General Avner Shalev, who at the time of the war had been the head of IDF Chief of Staff, David ‘Dado’ Elazar’s office.

The Sense of existential threat that hovered over Israel at that time had led the security cabinet, headed by Golda Meir and Dayan, to an unparalleled decision in the history of Israel. According to foreign reports, Israel decided to arm its’ ‘Jericho’   missiles with nuclear warheads.  These missiles were stationed at a launch site near ‘Sde Micah’, just south of the town of Beit Shemesh,. A constant alert went into effect with the missiles prepared for immediate launch in the event a command was issued following the occurance of a total military collapse.

 Upon the issuance of such a command, and as required in such an event, information was to be entered into the missile systems regarding the intended Arab countries which were targeted for the nuclear warheads. According to the  information of the foreign sources, Israel’s leadership had ordered the transport of these ‘Jericho’ missiles by freight train as part of an undercover operation.  The missiles were transported by train to a launch base in the Negev and on MBT-carriers to launch sites in the Golan Heights. 

What were the circumstances that led Golda to think about suicide? On Sunday, October 7th, at 15:00, Moshe Dayan reported to Golda of the serious situation on all fronts. He admitted to her that he had been wrong in all of his military assessments, and that the truth was that the State of Israel was headed towards another ‘holocaust’. Dayan explained to Golda that the balance of forces in the war were substantially in favor of Egypt and Syria and that it was not in the power of the IDF to respond effectively.

Dayan suggested to Golda the adoption of a new strategy, involving a deep retreat in the Golan Heights and withdrawal from the Suez Canal along with the stabilization of a new line of defense in the isthmus of the Mitla and the Gidi. To emphasize the seriousness of the situation in the most simple and obvious way, Dayan disclosed concrete information to Golda indicating that ‘between Tel Aviv and Abu Ageila (in the Sinai peninsula)’ there was not even one tank. Dayan expressed his belief they might be looking at a situation comparable to the ‘destruction of the third Temple’.

Golda wrote about this dramatic meeting in her book ‘My Life.’  “On Sunday (October 7^th) Dayan entered my office. He closed the door and stood in front of me. Do you want me to resign?, he asked. I told him, and I never regretted it, that he must continue in his position as defense minister”.

In his book “Milestones”, Dayan described the situation created by his apocalyptic statements which he repeated at the cabinet meeting following his personal meeting with Golda Meir: “The Prime Minister and the Ministers were shocked by my report. It was apparent that they were not convinced.  It seemed to me that they believed that the weakness was not our military strength, but in my character. I have lost my confidence so my assessments are not correct and too pessimistic”.

Despite the fact that Dayan, a renowned soldier and wizard of victories, was the one who presented her with a horrific scenario, Golda was not broken. She kept her cool and asked the chief of staff David (Dado) Elazar to come to her office. She told him about the Dayan’s reports and asked for his opinion. Elazar confirmed that the situation was difficult and the danger was great, but certainly not a ‘holocaust.’ “But,” Dado added, “before a decision is made concerning a  withdrawal I want to check the real situation on the front”.

Years later, Golda told Avner Shalev: “I said to myself that if Dayan is right in his assessment of the situation and Dado is wrong, I know exactly what I must do. I would kill myself. But as you know, Dado was right. Dado saved the state of Israel”.

Ultimately, the Middle East did not become a nuclear battlefield. Two possible factors helped in preventing the nuclear launch. First, the balance of the war changed in favor of Israel on both the Egyptian and Syrian fronts. Second,  information spread like a “fire in a field of thorns” that the Soviet Union had produced a response to Israel’s alleged nuclear missiles. The information indicated that  Russia had sent nuclear warheads to Egypt by sea, in order to put them on the Soviet Scud missiles already stationed in Egypt.

A state of worldwide military alert was declared by the U.S. on October 25th 1973. Regarding this mysterious affair, Time Magazine (4/12/76) as well as the American journalist-researcher Russell Warren Howe, later wrote in his book ‘Weapons’ published in 1980. This was the essence of these stories. On October 13th, at the Soviet naval base in Odessa on the Black Sea, the Soviets loaded atomic units of nuclear warheads, brought from the atomic base Nikolayev, on board a cargo ship bound for Egypt. When the ship passed the Straits of Bosporus on October 15th, the secret nature of the cargo was revealed. The warning was relayed immediately to Israel. Intelligence sources at “Time” assessed, as reflected in their article, that this information in the hands of Israel, was revealed through an intelligence American spy-aircraft SR-71 (AKA “blackbird”) which was installed with imaging, listening and sensing special devices. The uniqueness of this plane was its ability to reach speeds three times the speed of sound while maintaining an operational cruising altitude of approximately 85 thousand feet (30km). The intelligence aircraft swooped over Israel at a relatively low altitude and was discovered by the aerial defense system of the Israeli Air Force.  Two Phantom fighter jets were immediately scrambled to intercept it. Russell Howe wrote in his book about what happened during that ‘air encounter.’ A few minutes after the Israeli identification, the Israeli flight leader transmitted over his radio, “He is on my radar”. “This is an American ‘Blackbird’, was the American pilot’s response immediately after the broadcasted Israeli command “bring it down”.

Amazingly, the response of the ‘Blackbird’s’ pilot was also immediate. It was as if  he understood, word for word, what was being broadcast over the Israeli communication network. First, the Blackbird pilot sent electronic identification to clarify that it was friendly (IFF), but when it became clear to the American Intelligence gathering pilot, that the Israeli Phantoms intentions were offensive, the blackbird ‘broke’ away and quickly climbed to an altitude which the Phantoms were not able to reach. In context to this ‘interception’ incident, Russell Howe argued that based on ‘Pentagon experts’ the Israeli pilots had spoken freely and openly on the radios because they were not interested in intercepting the U.S. spy plane but only to drive it away.

Information about Soviet warheads came to Washington in real time and in urgent manner the National Security Council was convened. The obvious and immediate assessment was that if Israel used its nuclear weapons, the Russians would respond with nuclear weapons against Israel and, God forbid, possibly open a nuclear world-war between the super-powers, the Soviet Union against the United States. To preempt this danger, the ‘red phone’ between the White House and the Kremlin was used. President Richard Nixon reported to the Soviet President Leonid Brezhnev what information the U.S. intelligence had picked up. To avoid the danger of nuclear war the two men agreed to avoid a direct confrontation at all costs.

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The security cabinet of the Government of Israel was known in those days as ‘Golda’s Kitchen’. If orders to arm Jericho nuclear missiles at the launching site near Zachary and Sde Micah, were indeed issued as published by foreign sources, it represented a unique situation involving the use of an Internationally rehearsed potential event, the use of  “the nuclear chain of command”. The nature of the problems involved in reaching such a threatening situation can best be recognized, strange as it may sound, from the world of movies.

Only a few films in the history of the international film industry were effective in dealing with such an issue, the deadly serious issue of the danger of a nuclear holocaust threatening the existence of the world. The film ‘Dr. Strangelove’, starring  the brilliant Peter Sellers, took on the form of black comedy as it depicted world leaders who were crazy enough to deal with a nuclear war to the level of absurdity. In the film’s seemingly simple plot, U.S. Air Force General Jack Ripper decides to initiate a nuclear war out of his fears, chimeras, of the Communist conspiracy to contaminate the drinking water of the U.S. with fluoride and threaten the ‘precious bodily fluids’ of the American people. Ripper instructs his pilots to attack the Soviet Union with nuclear weapons, locking himself in his base with the hope that the offensive he started would set off an overall nuclear war. The three people who can avoid the catastrophe are all played by Peter Sellers: Dr. Strangelove, a former Nazi German scientist; A weak American President; and a British Captain called Lionel Mandrake, the only one who can communicate with Ripper.

When this cinematic saga was produced and became a kind of cult film, terms like “balance of terror”, “brinkmanship” or “red button” which could launch a nuclear bomb that might ignite the “Day of Judgment” were not yet inscribed on human consciousness. But the historical truth is that the U.S. built the atomic bomb and used it in 1945, giving rise to a need to formulate ‘chain of command’ that makes it unequivocally clear who is authorized to activate nuclear weapons and in what situations. A proper chain of command would ensure that the horrific scenario presented by Dr. Strangelove, couldn’t possibly occur.

 The first place this distributed control command systems was implemented was in the United States and the first man who gave the order in accordance with the new procedures was the 33^rd President of the United States, Harry Truman.  Truman, following the death of President Franklin Roosevelt quickly learned the secrets of   U.S. nuclear weapons. The Scientific body dealing with the nuclear issue in the U.S. was ‘Los Alamos National Laboratory’ which was founded and operated following the ‘Manhattan Project’, the code name for America’s atomic bomb production project.

For many years U.S. strategic nuclear secrets were kept under guard, in order to prevent events of espionage about the secrets of the production of atomic bombs by the Soviet Union.   No significant leaks occurred, that is, until the beginning of 2000. It turns out that even when it comes to a sophisticated super-power, blunders can occur.

On July 1^st, 2000, the Los Alamos lab manager discovered that two hard drives used in the laptops of members of the laboratory’s ‘nuclear intervention team’  had mysteriously disappeared sometime between May 7^th, 2000 to June 16^th, 2000.  On that date in June the hard drives were found abandoned behind a Xerox machine in the most highly secured zone of the laboratory but without the laptops involved. It was clear to everyone involved that a severe security breach of the most serious secrets had occurred. This embarrassing situation caused a deep crisis of trust between the senior executives of  the U.S. Department of Energy and the national laboratory scientists. The crisis endangered the ability of the laboratory to continue to be the main guardian of all U.S. nuclear secrets.

In order to discover the reasons behind this security breach, the U.S. Secretary of Energy ordered the establishment of an inquiry commission. The purpose of the commission was to expose the failures that caused the breach and to suggest corrective measures to prevent a recurrence of this type of event. The Committee examined what it examined, and recommended whatever it recommended, but the mystery of the breach has remained unsolved until today.   The U.S. government does not have credible information regarding the location of these hard disks during the six weeks of their disappearance, who might have seen them, who had access to their data, and what he or she did with the top secret  information on them.

The secret information stored on the missing ‘nuclear intervention’ team’s disks included details of the operational policies regarding nuclear weapons and, among other things, the rules and procedures developed for questions that might arise regarding the operation of nuclear weapons, possible questions like those that follow:

• Which figure within the administration may determine when the moment arrives when there is no escape from any recognized threat – terrorist or otherwise – and which presents a clear and present danger or even ‘existential threat’?
• On the basis of what method of testing and evaluation of information credibility, is it decided the time has arrived to activate a nuclear reaction and who is to make that decision?
• Who is in control of the “red nuclear button”? The head of the governing body only, or by someone authorized on his behalf?
• Can a single person make a decision for a situation normally requiring the decision of a team?
• If the head of the governing system is ‘disabled’ or unable to perform his duties, who assumes operating authority, and who is authorized to determine that indeed the transition of power is required?
• Who determines the right targets for the attack?
• Who decides the allocation targets between the nuclear missiles, the planes carrying nuclear bombs or submarines to activate a “second blow” capability?
• Are there prepared scenarios covering all the possible scenarios of a deadly enemy attack – nuclear, biological or chemical?
• Is there room for a system to monitor and verify a decision-makers decision? (The conventional supervisory method has been the dual control system used in the U.S. and the Soviet Union at the time. According to this method two people belonging to two independent chains of command,  hold two separate operating ciphers with coded keys to activate the system. The mere coordinating  operation, as applied simultaneously or gradually , of these two keys can confirm the execution of the activation instruction).
• When a change in an administration takes place, is a ‘dry run’ of the system performed in order to make sure that there is precise synchronization of all actions by the principles involved? Is there is no fear displayed that an inexperienced enough politician might  press the wrong ‘red button’? It is clear that this type of error can bring about a calamitous situations.

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 Without getting into a discussion about whether or not Israel holds a ‘nuclear option’, or actual ’nuclear weapons’, as is openly assessed by many authorities around the world, is it safe to say that it has rehearsed the procedures necessary should it find itself involved in a ‘black day’ scenario?  It is clear that Israel continues to display its concern about the threat of a nuclear attack from Iran, a country which has not hidden its intentions to eradicate Israel off the face of the earth. Anyone with reasonable vision can see as well as assume with a high degree of probability, that the leaders of Israel throughout history and out of supreme responsibility for the welfare of the State and of the existence of its citizens, have dedicated and devoted time and thought to the discussion of how to prepare for a ‘black day’ scenario of an Iranian atomic attack.  Its’ leaders continue to hope that such a scenario will never occur but would know how to respond, if the worst would happen. Since Israel didn’t ‘invent the wheel’ and the major powers have been grappling with similar issues all the years of managing a policy of ‘balance of terror’ we have from whom to learn. The best and most accessible school for Israel is, in no doubt, the USA.

It is fair to question who will be the one among Israel’s  leaders who would have to make a quick decision were Israel to come under nuclear attack by Iran? One can only assess,with some extent of accuracy, what Israeli leaders would really do if the time came to discuss this nightrmarish scenario. If what allegedly  occurred during the Yom Kippur War, where it was contemplated  to activate the ‘atomic red button’, were to take place today, would Israel respond with ‘Blood and Fire’?  Would it respond in accordance with the Biblical version of “The Samson Option” towards anyone who would try to threaten the existence of the Jewish state and its residents.      The vision of an atomic mushroom and deadly radioactivity  rising over tens of thousands of possible victims scattered among the ruins of Tel – Aviv, must weigh heavily in the minds and practiced reactions of Israel’s leaders today.

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It is only reasonable to assume that when Golda’s Cabinet allegedly issued the order to arm nuclear missiles during that Black October day in 1973, it was a top secret order. Only years later, have foreign sources published the nuclear measures that were supposed to be operated then as well as their location. In 1997 the prestigious journal “Jane’s”  and the GlobalSecurity.org website, one of the most trusted and respected publications in this field revealed to the world what they called ‘the secrets of Israel’s nuclear site near ‘Moshav Zecharia’.

According to these foreign publications, as well as others, a base referred to as “Wing 2” of the Israeli Air Force, also referred to by the foreign media as “Sdot Micah” or “Beit Zechariah” after the name of the surrounding communities, is very close to the military airport of Tel-Nof.  According to these foreign reports the base houses three squadrons of “Jericho” ballistic missiles, capable of carrying nuclear warheads.  The secret launching site of these Israeli missiles is in a low hilly region in ancient caves carved in the distant past. Jayne’s went on to report that recent changes in Israel’s security needs demanded an increase in the number of launch sites.  As a result new accommodation caves were hewn from the rocks.  According to photographed  information revealed in the spring of 2002 by the spy satellite “Iconos” and in comparison with photographs obtained by other satellites, an assessment was formed that the launch site now contains between 23 to 50 underground launching shelters and that Israel has 100 “Jericho” missiles of all kinds, including the most advanced missile “Jericho 3”.

A most intriguing question asked by the intelligence world involves Israeli Jericho missiles, how far are they really able to reach? To answer this question we must clarify some facts specifically about Israel’s ability to launch satellites.  Israel’s first spy satellite was the “Ofek 3” which enabled photo and other informational gathering abilities with regard to enemy countries in the Middle East. Dr. Meir Stieglitz, an Israeli strategic analyst, explained an important fact in an article he  published.  The ‘Ofek Project’ is not just capable of carrying a camera into space. In order to send a satellite like ‘Ofek’ into earth orbit, one must be able to build an appropriate launching missile. A missile of this type is the “Shavit” that can, it is argued, carry combat warheads, to any Arab capital including the capital cities in Europe, Russia and China, not to mention Iran. A U.S. Intelligence expert explaining the problem argues, however, that “there is no difference between a ballistic missile capable of launching satellites into space and a ballistic missile capable of carrying nuclear warheads”.

U.S. military intelligence believes that a “Shavit” missile, in its advanced version, can reach a distance of 4500 km, carrying an explosive warhead weighing 1,000 kgs. According to what is known to American intelligence, Israel’s warheads weigh 350 kgs. Whether or not it is the real weight of the arrowhead, it is clear that the missile is capable of reaching ranges that  significantly exceed 4500 km.

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The foreign media continues to focus on a  theoretical question.  Which are the targets allocated to the missiles from the”Beit Zachary” launching site?  A  possible clue to one of the main targets  was revealed to the public by none less than a ‘senior Government source’, Knesset member, Avigdor Lieberman. In a meeting with CIS ambassadors during the 2001 election, Lieberman made it clear that in certain circumstances Israel can bomb the Aswan Dam.

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To better understand the dramatic and horrific meaning of the option to bomb the dam, one should recognize basic statistics.  Aswan Dam  is 3600m in length, its base width is 980m, its width at the highest point is 40m and the dam’s height stands 110m above the Nile. The lake created by the Dam upstream the Nile  is called  “Nasser Lake “. The Length of the lake is 550 km and it is  35 km wide. There are 12 power generation turbines working at the Dam, utilizing the force of water flow to provide the most significant part of Egypt’s electricity consumption.

From this data it is clear that conventional bombing cannot cause significant damage to the dam. However, if the dam were to be hit by a nuclear bomb, the result would have “historical ramifications” on Egypt. If the top of the dam were to split, a huge wave of millions of cubic meters of water would burst through it.  This would result in a destructive wave that would flood the banks of the Nile and the communities on the shores of the Nile.  The huge flood of water would follow the Nile through Luxor and Cairo to the Mediterranean Sea. A tsunami would be considered  child’s play next to this huge wave.  Hundreds of thousands of Egyptians living on both banks of the Nile, including tens of thousands in Cairo would be washed out to the sea .

In actuality the consequences of such a disaster would be far more devastating. The Nile, from the dam to the Mediterranean Sea, would become radioactive for many years. Damage to agriculture would be fatal as serious damage to its production capacity would spell financial disaster to Egypt’s Economy.

David Ben Gurion, when questioned about the possibility of a second Holocaust occurring to  the Jewish people, responded by quoting one of Israel’s most well known ancient figures, Samson.  In the event of such an impending disaster “Let me die with the Philistines,”  said Ben Gurion.  Ben Gurion’s option came to be known as  “The Samson Option.” Such a disastrous scenario involving Egypt can only occur should  fanatic Muslims take over Egypt and threaten to wipe Israel off the map like Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.