U.S. security officials have a sober view of terrorism and how to fight it

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U.S. counterterrorism analysts have painted a pessimistic picture of the years to come, saying the threats from terrorism will continue to challenge the United States.

Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, in a recent congressional testimony, said terrorism trend lines are worse “than at any other point in history.” Maj. Gen. Michael Nagata, commander of U.S. Special Operations forces in the Middle East, told participants on a counterterrorism strategy call that he considers the Islamic State (ISIS) a greater menace than al-Qaeda has ever been. Michael Morell, the former deputy director of the CIA, told audiences at a New York police terrorism conference that he doubts his generation would live to see the end of al-Qaeda and its offshoots. “This is long term,” he said. “My children’s generation and my grandchildren’s generation will still be fighting this fight.”

According to HomeLand Security News wire , his attitude contrasts with the feelings most Americans had after the killing of Osama bin Laden in 2011 and the dawn of the Arab Spring, which was initially seen as a first step in a path toward democracy in the Middle East. For U.S. security officials, those optimistic views have evaporated – even as some note that counterterrorism work thrives on pessimism and involves planning for worst-case scenarios.

Tampa Bay Times notes that among the reasons for alarm shared in intelligence circles are the growth of the Islamic State, the influx of foreign fighters with Western passports joining militant groups, the deteriorating security conditions in Libya, and the fall of the U.S.-backed government in Yemen — which could turn both countries into havens for radical Islamist groups — and the recent announcement by Boko Haram of its allegiance to ISIS.

Still, some voices in the intelligence community are more optimistic, claiming the concern over terrorism is overblown. They say that today’s terror groups are more focused on securing territory than launching transnational plots. ISIS is primarily occupied with spreading its influence throughout the Middle East as it acquires more land in Syria and Iraq, while Boko Haram seeks to establish a caliphate in Nigeria.