ISIS Spreading: is Jordan next?
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ISIS is gaining ground in the area spanning from the Syrian-Lebanese border, through northern Iraq and the outskirts of Bagdad. ISIS has also been operating, for quite a few months now, in south-west Syria, very close to the Syrian-Jordanian border. Only last week, they captured UN forces on two separate incidents near the border post at Quneitra. This development attracted media attention. The proximity to Syria’s border with Jordan and the inclusion of the area within the future ISIS Caliphate in lieu of the current Hashemite Kingdom signify an increase in the threat ISIS poses to Jordan as we know it.
One of ISIS most notable strategies is to attack remote army posts, destroy them or neutralize them, capture the weapons and equipment along with the fuel, execute the personnel and feature footage and videos of their actions all throughout the social media. ISIS regards civilian and military airports alike as prime targets, as attested by their recent attack on Tabqa airbase in Iraq, Mosul airport, the constant threat on Bagdad’s international airport, and the Raqqa airbase in Syria.
Jordan has two airports which may well fall prey to ISIS forces: H4 Airbase near Ruwaished, not far from the Jordanian-Iraqi border, as well as the King Hussein Airbase near Mafraq, very close to the Syrian-Jordanian border. Both airbases deploy dozens of F-16s, Cobra and Black Hawk combat helicopters, reconnaissance helicopters, transport helicopters such as the Super Puma, as well as transport aircraft ranging from C-130 Hercules to Antonov An-32.
The Royal Jordanian Air Force also has numerous aircraft at various operational levels, which are used for training, such as Mirage and F-104s. Jordan also has Meggit Banshee UAVs which are used as both antiaircraft systems as well as for training. Jordan has advanced air-to-air missiles and air-to-surface missiles and anti-aircraft systems bought from both western and former USSR suppliers. The fall of Jordan’s airbases to ISIS along with the above weaponry would spell a serious blow to the moderate forces, a boost to ISIS recruitment efforts worldwide and the official inclusion of Jordan in the direct circle of the current fighting – not to mention the significant upgrade to ISIS weaponry and capabilities.
Another all too familiar mode of operation for ISIS is inciting demonstrations, building in part on popular opposition to the local government. Jordan has had its share of recent ISIS-led demonstrations by Palestinian residents, who sympathize with ISIS and with Hamas. Jordan’s authorities did little to hide their efforts to oppress these protests.
Unlike crumbling and disintegrating Iraq and Syria, Jordan’s central government has both authority and legitimation both at home and abroad, internationally as well as across the Arab world. Jordan has the quiet albeit consistent support of Saudi Arabia, the Gulf countries and Egypt. Moreover, Jordan’s army is considered highly professional and loyal to the regime. In a recent visit to one of the army bases, Jordan’s king Abduallah spoke on record, expressing his optimism and confidence of the government forces’ ability to tackle any threat.
