Three Million Refugees expected in EU By 2017
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Three million refugees and migrants could arrive in the European Union by 2017, according to predictions made by the EU’s executive arm.
The European Commission has estimated one million arrivals in total during 2015, soaring to 1.5million in 2016 and then decreasing to half-a-million in 2017. However, once unsuccessful asylum applications have been taken into account, this will only represent a 0.4 per cent population increase.
In addition, European Union economic commissioner Pierre Moscovici said that the influx of refugees and migrants from 2015-2017 will end up boosting the EU’s economy. EU autumn economic forecasts show that based on current migrant entries and a ‘technical assumption’ about future flows, arrival rates are unlikely to slow before 2017.
The EU’s executive Commission said that “overall, an additional 3 million persons is assumed to arrive in the EU over the forecast period.”
Most people are arriving in Europe through Italy and Greece, while Hungary and Austria have been affected by heavy migrant flows. Germany and Sweden are also feeling the impact.
Those nations, among others, want the EU to apply its budget rules with flexibility, taking into account Europe’s biggest refugee emergency in well over half a century, and avoid reprimanding member states for excessive spending and deficits.
The Commission said Thursday that Sweden, which has the highest share of refugees per capita, is likely to feel the economic impact most, perhaps 0.5 percent of its gross domestic product this year.
Other hard-hit migrant transit and destination countries are likely to see an impact of 0.2 percent of their GDPs in 2015.
While acknowledging the potential short-term impact, the Commission did not clearly state whether it would be flexible on budget policy.
