Will yesterday’s weapon system win tomorrow’s war?

Will yesterday’s weapon system win tomorrow’s war?

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By Arie Egozi

The dilemma is not new but as weapon systems become much more expensive we try to solve it: Is the weapon system we buy today and will be fielded in the coming years, the answer to the threats at that future point?

Israel is preparing for a “compensation package” that it expects to get from the U.S after the signing of the “Iran nuclear deal” in Vienna on July 14th. The dilemma is there and will be there in the future when other main weapon systems will be on the shopping list. Is there a way to decide what will be the future need of an armed force in a region like the Middle East, based only on the wish of the commanders to always have the most expensive “toys” in the store?

Can the Israeli defense ministry really know what the operational need will be in 2017 when the deliveries of the F-35s will begin and beyond? When each F-35 carries a price tag of about $137 million U.S., the question should be always- is it worth the price?

When trying to answer such a crucial question, the special situation in the Middle East should be kept in mind. Israel has the most powerful and most trained air force in the region. The imminent threat is currently from Iran, a country on the threshold of nuclear weapons. At the same time Iran has an air force with very limited capabilities. Does Israel need a stealth fighter with a $137 million price tag attached to its wings to attack the nuclear facilities? The answer according to many experts is negative. They say that the current fleet of fighters operated by the Israeli air force can with the right EW systems, achieve the same element of surprise.

1115But the question of procuring other main weapon systems does not stop in the air force. The Israeli navy will get new missile corvettes after abandoning the plan to purchase the U.S. made LCS war ships. The Israeli armored corps wants more Merkava Mk-4 main battle tanks. Are these operational requirements based on the “last war experience”? Many experts share that claim and say that this is a big mistake, mainly in the Middle East.

The problem is complicated. Each arm of the Israeli defense forces (IDF) wants the best currently available weapon system – the fact that technology is and will change the battle order is not taken into account.

The issue is universally complicated, but in Israel it is even more than in other places. With most of the procurement budget of the IDF coming from the U.S. foreign military funds (FMF), Israel has to “buy American”. it’s not that someone else makes a better stealth fighter than the F-35, but Israel is a “captive market” for the U.S. and without competition the rules change or even worse, as there are no rules.

Will the situation change? Seems that the clear answer is no. The Israeli defense establishment will continue to determine what it needs without letting anybody to ask questions. Is this the way to get the most for any dollar spent on defense ? the answer to that question is also no but nobody is holding his breath.

And there is another issue that goes with procurement plans of the IDF. According to the arrangement each such contract with the U.S.government, is accompanied with an offset agreement, an obligation of the U.S. manufacturer to buy Israeli made hardware directly connected to the system it manufactures or to other systems it produces. The term offset has become ” politically not correct” as there is opposition in Washington to buy Israeli made systems when this country gets an annual defense grant from the U.S. “This is a crazy situation where a country enjoys our support twice,” Pentagon officials said more than once. So to get over this hurdle, the offset changed its name and is now referred to as “industrial cooperation”. Semantics solves problem or rather brushes them under the rug.

Israel aerospace industries (IAI) is manufacturing up to 900 pairs of the main structure of the F-35 wings. Elbit systems is supplying the special pilot helmet of the stealth fighter. Other smaller contracts will be signed with some other Israeli defense industries.

But the Israeli industries are not satisfied. They claim that a deal with the Israeli air force is always a good “promotional act” that helps the American industries to increase their sales in other countries. “When Israel buys a system, it is a signature of approval,” a senior source in one of the Israeli industries said recently. He and others, say that the ministry of defense could negotiate a better deal for the industries. But to blame the ministry is not fair as the U.S. was very reluctant to allow Israeli defense industries to “plant” their systems in the F-35s that will be supplied by the Israeli air force. And here we speak about crucial systems like radar and EW.

This policy limited very much the bargaining leverage of the Israeli defense ministry and its officials say that the industrial cooperation that is part of the deal is the “most that could be achieved”.

Again to the main question – the huge sums involved in purchasing main battle systems, raises many dilemmas. But in the current situation in the Middle East these will stay unanswered as the generals will always win any conflict with even the most powerful politicians.

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