Is this the beginning of the end?

Is this the beginning of the end?

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syrian tanks

Assad’s hold on power seems shakier than ever.  Last month rebel forces captured the capital of Ibid province, after just a few days’ fighting. On Saturday they won the town of Jisr al-Shughour in northern Idlib.  Emile Hokayem of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, says the growing strains on Assad’s manpower and resources “are becoming extremely obvious, and the magnitude of his losses are now too big to hide.”

The appearance of winning is extremely important to the Syrian dictator, since this places him, in the eyes of the west, as viable opposition to ISIS. If he cannot withstand his own indigenous rebels he obviously cannot be counted on to stand strong against the spreading Islamic state.

According to the Washington Post the revival of rebel fortunes is attributed to a large degree to the recent rapprochement between a newly assertive Saudi Arabia on the one hand and Turkey and Qatar on the other. Since inheriting the throne in January, Saudi King Salman has moved, with great force and determination, to challenge the expanding regional influence of Iran. His most public step in this direction was the war Saudi Arabia embarked on against Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. The Saudi King is also acting in order to shore up the flagging and deeply divided rebels in Syria, in coordination with Qatar and Turkey.

The result of all these efforts has been the forming of a rebel coalition called the ‘Army of Conquest’, made up of al-Qaeda affiliate Jabat al-Nusra, an assortment of mostly Islamist brigades and a small number of more moderate battalions. The coalition, launched last month, has proved surprisingly effective.

After seizing most of Idlib province in recent weeks, the rebels are pressing south toward the government strongholds of Hama and Homs and, are threatening the ­Assad family’s coastal heartland of Latakia. A separate, more moderate rebel coalition, is challenging government control over the key provincial capital of Daraa and making progress north toward Damascus.

Much will depend on Iran’s response. In the past Iran had repeatedly stepped up to dispatch men, money and arms whenever Assad seemed to be faltering. But Iran too is stretched. It is suffering the effects of continued international sanctions, and must comply with the demands of the war next door in Iraq. It may not be available, this time round, to support their Syrian partner.