Proactive measures to foil Iran’s vengeance

Proactive measures to foil Iran’s vengeance

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Proactive measures to foil Iran’s vengeanceEver since the Hezbollah fired on the Israeli IDF force at Mount Dov, the Iranians have been making clear statements blatantly referring to a ’worthy’ retaliation in response to the elimination of a senior Iranian General. There have also been numerous reports about possible course of action Iran my take, including several senior IDF officers, along with their respective photos, mentioned as would-be targets. These alerts must be taken seriously. Moreover, there is a strong parallel between the recent blow to the Hezbollah / Iranian Revolutionary Guard infrastructure in the Golan Heights, followed by the Hezbollah attack at Mt. Dov, and the attacks on Hezbollah in the early 1990’s and the terrorist attack in Argentina at the same time.

The early 1990’s saw two car bombs exacting numerous casualties. These terror attacks, which were directed at Israeli and Jewish targets, were directed by the Iranians and perpetrated by Hezbollah.

The first of these terrorist attacks was launched on March 17 1992 against the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires, about one month following the elimination of Abbas Mussawi, Hezbollah Chairman at the time. Allegedly, this attack was the retaliation for said elimination. The second terrorist attack, on July 18 1994, was perpetrated against the Jewish Community building in Buenos Aires, the AMIA complex. The Hezbollah claimed responsibility for this attack, citing the Israeli Air Force (IAF) bombing of its training camps at Ein Dardara, which resulted in 50 dead among its operative. Between both events, the Ein Dardara bombing and the terrorist attack against the AMIA building, there was another major event. On March 13 1994, the Hezbollah attempted to blow up a truck filled with explosives at Israel’s embassy in Bangkok. The attack was foiled.

In assessing the possible courses of action by Hezbollah / Iran against Israeli targets outside Israel, it is worthwhile to refer to the wide range of means they might resort to in order to attack a symbolic Israeli venue, one which they would deem ’worthy’ of their vengeance. Among these numerous modus operandi, using car bombs ranks high, given both its manifold advantages on the one hand and its significant physical and media impact on the other. This is a conventional weapon the terrorist organizations resort to worldwide.

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The Hezbollah has already launched airborne platforms (drones) into Israeli territory, with intensive assistance by Iran. The IAF intercepted them all. The major development of unmanned aerial systems (UAS) and other unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) worldwide, which are already highly available, also in civilian-configured technology, in the hands of terrorist organization, poses a major threat. This calls for the attention of security bodies worldwide. This was recently highlighted by the drones which crashed at the feet of German chancellor Merkel and on the White House lawn. In addition to these two incidents, there have been others which were uncovered by intelligence services and foiled by them. It is estimated that relevant authorities in Israel would know how to respond to similar events.

In the absence of actionable intelligence (and even whet it is available), major steps and measures need to be taken in order to monitor and detect unfolding terrorist attacks and to intercept them. These may include various personal targets, infrastructure, complexes and cyber targets – although in the case of seeking vengeance, the Iranians will be on the lookout for physical targets. Being ahead of this curve calls for proactive measures, namely taking various steps in hindsight, in order to prevent future damage. In other words, preventing events and foiling them at the tactical level are called for, realistically speaking, both in order to save lives and in order to provide powers that be with strategic breathing space to prevent the conflict from escalating further.

Given the highly publicized statements and declarations from Iranian officials concerning vengeful acts, it seems the following pattern has emerged. Iran is making its intentions clear, especially set against the background of its proven track record of perpetrating terrorist attacks. For the latter purpose, they did not shy away from using various local Iranian diplomatic delegations as logistic infrastructure for carrying terrorist attack out. This combination leads to the assessment the level of threat posed by Iran and the Hezbollah is high. This calls for measures to be taken, along with maintaining high alert and making the necessary security preparations.

Written by: Meir Gershuni, former department head at Israel’s GSS and at present Senior Vice President for HLS at MAYDEX AG