Missile Defense: Too Much Demand and Not Enough Supply

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In the framework of the anti-ISIS coalition, the US and its allies are deploying Patriot Air and Missile Defense units in the Middle East. Logistically and operationally, they are stretched to the limit.

As a missile defense equipped member of NATO, Spain has sent one of its Patriot batteries to Turkey to relieve its NATO partner. The Spanish force will join the two U.S. and two German Patriots Batteries that have been in the region since 2013 to defend and deter ballistic missile threats from Syria. The Spanish are replacing a Dutch Patriot unit, which is scheduled to return to the Netherlands to undergo modifications at the end of January. This rotation allows for NATO countries to share the burden and cost of the joint mission, saving any one single NATO country from being fully responsible.

These deployments, along with deployments throughout the Arabian Gulf, Korea and Japan provide tremendous pressure on a very limited number of U.S. Missile Defense Patriot batteries and soldiers manning these systems. So much so, that deployment lengths for missile defenders currently stand at 12 months, from the normal nine-month tours of for the U.S. Army. There is less than a 1 to 2 ratio of Patriot Battalions deployed forward deployed to ones in reserve, where the norm for the Army is a 1 to 3 deployed to reserve ratio.

U.S. Patriot deployments in Turkey draw from U.S. missile defense assets in Germany that also have the mission of deploying to Israel and all of Europe should the threat warrant. U.S. rotating deployments in Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates are permanently in place, drawing equipment and soldiers from Fort Bliss and Fort Hood in Texas, Fort Sill in Oklahoma, and Fort Bragg in North Carolina.

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These Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, along with Guam, have U.S. Army rotations limited by the number of batteries and soldiers to constantly be deployed with enough assets to rest, then reset from their deployment and train and prepare for the next deployments.

The U.S. Army has a limited number of 15 Patriot Battalions. Of these 15, two are in Korea, one in Japan, and one in Germany. This leaves only 11 Battalions to rotate into locations within the 5 allied countries of the GCC and Jordan. Even with consuming an important “test” Battalion as part of the rotation, these force levels do not allow for a 3 to 1 deployment ratio, which as a result forces air defense soldiers onto 12-month deployments.

To make these deployments sustainable, we either have to increase the supply of Patriot Batteries by acquiring more equipment and expanding manpower, or have our allies participate in the rotation with their own Patriot units to help shoulder the burden and cost. This requires true sharing of information and trust.

An alternative approach would be to force a shift in the burden of regional missile defense onto our allies in the GCC and NATO. This approach would require having the political courage and the diplomatic fortitude to withdraw U.S. Air Defense assets from countries that have enough capability of their own to defend against the current threat. This would include training and access to information.

Written by: Riki Ellison, Chairman and Founder, Missile Defense Advocacy Alliance