Fast Draw – Nasrallah

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First and foremost, the fact. Hezbollah is armed to the teeth with massive arsenals of accurate weapons systems. Its men are trained to, inter alia, to make major incursions into Israeli’s northern region. Tunnels have been dug along Lebanon’s border with Israel. These are the facts, even if there are those in Israel who would like to discount them.

Hezbollah General Secretary Hassan Nasrallah is yet respond to the elimination of Imad Murnieh’s son, along with additional member of the organization in the Syrian Golan. Nevertheless, some Hezbollah members are calling for reaction, but not such that would lead to an escalation which could usher in a comprehensive war. “The killing of 6 Hezbollah activists will be met with a painful and unexpected response, but we may assume this response will be measures, so as to avoid total war.” This, is a quote attributed to ‘sources close to Hezbollah’ as it was relayed to A Saphir, a Lebanese newspaper associated with the organization.

The sources close to Hezbollah which spoke with the Lebanese newspaper underscored that the organization shall not act emotionally, but would rather think carefully before deciding on its next step.

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Hezbollah will no doubt retaliate. Whether this response will take the form of border attacks as in the past or not, Israel would still have to respond in a measured, regional way. Nevertheless, the risk is that, whether intentionally or by chance, in the course of some escalation, Nasrallah might think it’s time to put the massive arsenal at his disposal to action.

In such an eventuality, Israel must not accept a situation of some war of attrition. All signs are pointing that Israeli leadership’s concerns of “what will the world say” could bring about a de-facto acquiescence to rockets falling on Israeli territory for weeks.

This must not happen.

In case those Hezbollah rockets are launched, Israeli retaliation must be disproportionate – Israel must signal it has “gone berserk”.  The IDF, and in particularly Israel’s Air Force (IAF), are capable to achieve this effect. Nevertheless, the decision would have to be made.

The equation must be clear and simple: starting with the very first rocket Hezbollah fires against Israel, the latter’s response must be ferocious. Only such retaliation could ensure we do not all find ourselves being forced into bomb shelters for weeks on end – in the best scenario.