ISIS Spreading: Why is Turkey spared?

ISIS Spreading: Why is Turkey spared?

אילוסטרציה

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אילוסטרציה
אילוסטרציה

Thus far, Turkey has been the only country bordering ISIS-controlled zones not to be attacked at all. ihls desk attempts to explain.

ISIS keep reiterating their ultimate goal is the creation of an Islamic state whose core is Turkey. This Islamic state is to stretch from the Caucasus to most of the northern half of Africa, from Spain and most of Southern Europe to India. It is therefore a puzzle as to why Turkey, the heart of the former Ottoman Empire, remains as yet un-attacked by ISIS. This is all the more puzzling, as, in stark contrast, ISIS has been subverting the regime not only in Syria and Iraq, but also in Lebanon and in Jordan, where it has been inspiring mass demonstrations. The question remains, how come Turkey has thus far been spared?

First, ISIS “pick on the little guy”: Syria has been disintegrating for years whereas Iraq, with a serious power vacuum, is split into three de facto states. ISIS is yet to brave an attack against a country with a strong, effective government with an obvious grip throughout its territory. ISIS is still at the buildup stage, first through support and backing from the West and the Sunni Arab countries, as it was fighting against Assad, and now through rapid, bloody and highly publicized easy pickings against far flung and weak military forces.

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Turkey is far from being an easy target: this is a regional power whose military grip, even in the most remote positions of its far borders, remains firm and ready. Turkey has an impressive air force, a huge army (the second largest in NATO) and a booming economy. Turkey has over 200 F-16 fighter jets and scores of fighter helicopters. This March, a Turkish F-16 downed a Syrian Mig-23.

Secondly, Turkey has reached agreements with the Kurds in its own territory, with the Kurds in Syria and with the Kurds in northern Iraq. Erdogan’s regime shows pragmatism and long-term thinking by signing off on Kurdish autonomy and eventual statehood. Thus, as far as Ankara is concerned, the elements that would have sided with ISIS have been neutralized. Moreover, the Kurds, spanning three countries, have become a ‘cordon sanitaire’ of sorts, and an ally vis-à-vis ISIS. Turkey has paid a price for this, in the form of strained relations with the US, which does not welcome an independent Kurdistan.

Thirdly, Turkey lets others fight for her – not only the Kurds and the Sunni states, but also the US. Turkey – an important NATO member since 1952 – refuses to allow US aircraft to attack ISIS from its own bases. Erdogan is therefore playing a double game: Turkey is a member of NATO, and at the same time he signals ISIS he is yet to side with their enemies – at least for now.