ICT Study: Lone Wolf Terrorism in the Western World

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By Sarah Teich, ICT

This study analyzed current trends and developments in lone wolf terrorism. Starting with a literature review, this paper analyzed the dataset to add information to the previous research, and analyzed case studies to examine previously researched trends in-depth.

Analysis of the dataset revealed a number of developments. The United States has the highest level of lone wolf terrorism. The total number of incidents in the United States – and in the Western world in general – is increasing. Second most-targeted countries are the United Kingdom and Germany. Over the past three decades, these three countries remained the most targeted; however, the number of countries targeted by Islamic lone wolves has increased. In the 1990’s, only the United States was targeted; from 2010 to 2013, the UK, Germany, France, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Canada, and Spain have also been attacked.

The United States have improved their ability to stop lone wolf attacks before they are implemented – dispelling the common notion that lone wolves are impossible to prevent. Even though they are unaffiliated and thus harder to trace, their attacks are preventable. It is most difficult to prevent when the attacker has no contact whatsoever with other extremists – Pantucci’s loners were seen to be the most successful at carrying out terrorist attacks.

The increased level of military personnel targeted has increased in the last three decades – possibly due to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Islamic terrorists no longer need to blame the West in general; concrete wars can be used to condone violence. This is just an idea, not a research finding, so research would be needed to link the increase in guerilla warfare to the American occupations.

Analysis of the five case studies revealed consistency with previous research themes. Previous research discusses the prevalence of psychopathology and social ineptitude in lone wolf terrorists. The case studies likewise show instances of psychopathology and social ineptitude. This additionally fits with the data analysis from the dataset: loners were seen to be the most prevalent – and successful – type of lone wolf terrorist. Since the case studies were chosen due to their high fatality or injury rate, they represented successful cases. In this way, since loners are most likely to be successful, it is unsurprising that the case studies showed high prevalence of social ineptitude.

IHLS – Israel Homeland Security

Another congruency with previous research was the influence of the Internet. In many of the case studies, the Internet influenced their radicalization. Some specifically were radicalized by Al-Awlaki’s YouTube sermons. The Boston Bombers’ success was additionally credited to the Internet, where they found their bomb-making recipe that injured 264 people.

Lastly, the case studies supported the previously researched trend that lone wolves are motivated by a combination of personal grievances and broader goals. Almost all of the perpetuators analyzed had immense personal grievances: divorce, custody issues regarding children, job loss, mental illness, harassment, and more. In all the cases, the perpetuators were not religiously devout all their lives – in most of the cases, radical Islam was used as a comfort after the suffering of personal grievances. Radical Islam was an attractive narrative for these people: it removed the blame from the individual, and externalized their personal problems and blamed Western society. Additionally, it condoned violence, and these people with personal frustrations used that to blame and to vent all of their problems out onto the world that had wronged them.

This study represented an overview of current trends and developments, linked to previous research themes. Future research is needed to look in-depth into each trend, and link the data to Islamic radicalization and, most importantly, prevention techniques.

For the full report in PDF format, click here