Secret wars and why they avoid big conflagrations

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It may be considered a paradox but this is the reality. While countries develop very deadly and unconventional weapons, some of these countries also develop silent agents, deception tools that at the end of the day may result in leaving the triggers un-squeezed.

According to recent press reports, the war against the Iranian nuclear program is being fought now not with missiles and bombs but with a “worm” type computer virus that caused havoc in the Iranian centrifuge facilities which produce the needed uranium for a nuclear weapon.

Israel has not reacted to the stories which claimed who was behind those cyber attack, but the Iranians had to confirm that the “worm” was very effective in slowing down their nuclear program.

This story is a very rare indication to the “parallel war” fought in the dark and far from any defined war zone.

Other publications leaked to Wikileaks , and media around the world claimed that the Israeli Air force has operated in recent years in Syria and in some African countries to stop ongoing hostile activities.

All these reports claimed that the Israeli fighter aircraft penetrated Syrian and other airspaces, after Israel managed to take control of the country’s early warning system. The nuances are important – they did not blind the Syrian and other radars but took control over it, in such a way that it had no chance of detecting the Israeli fighters.

All these are of course leaked reports and the “wild” stories of journalists, however if only some of them are true, the trend is crystal clear – in order to win a war or to perform a “surgical” attack it’s not enough to have fighter jets with precision bombs. There is a need to manipulate the enemy, deceive it, cause confusion and then attack and get out without meeting any resistance.

If you read the reports in the foreign press you may get the impression that Israel is a high tech super power. All these reports mention that the Israeli defense forces (IDF) and the Mossad have special units that develop tools for cyber wars. These units are trying to be at least one step ahead of anyone else that is considered and may be considered a potential enemy.

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It can be assumed that like in other areas, Israel needs results in quantum jumps ahead. It happened with unmanned air systems (UAS) that were needed for wars. It makes sense that the need to supply the right tools for Cyber war, for the armed forces and secret services, also resulted in positioning Israel at least one generation ahead of its adversaries.

There is no doubt – cyber wars are fought in the Middle East on a daily basis and they are becoming more complex, more sophisticated, more focused.

Part of the “trick” in such military cyber wars, is letting the enemy think that nothing is happening. Unlike in many cases of electronic warfare, when the enemy gets indications that something occurred. In the cyber war, the goal is to keep the radar and other early warning sensors’ operators calm until the attack is over. The surprise is complete and swift.

While Israel is continuing to purchase and manufacture the most advanced weapon systems, experts in this new type of warfare are looking for the next hole in the shield. This is a war between minds, between “wild” concepts that are based on much experience and also on the fact that the most advanced national facilities of every country rely on computers. The “fire walls” are there but the new warriors look for the smallest crack, and to believe recent report they find them.

Can cyber attacks win a war? Can these attacks become a substitute to real weapon systems? Talking with the experts you get a somewhat contradicting picture – while some say that this is the shape of wars to come, others say that this is only a complementary asset.

But one thing is obvious – the higher the importance of the designated target, the bigger is the effort put into the “cyber weapons”.

The dilemma about cyber wars has a great resemblance to the one concerning UAS’s. Should an air force invest in more manned platforms or instead channel the limited budgets to additional sophisticated UAS’s? The two dilemmas will be in the air for years to come because there is no general, not to mention a politician that can or actually wants to make that decision.

But the dilemmas are self solved. The UAS’s will take over many tasks of manned aircraft in an increasing pace. It’s enough to see the growing number of unmanned combat air vehicles (UCAVS) programs to understand the trend. The same thing is applicable to cyber war systems. These will become more complex and more sophisticated. Will they replace fighter jets, missiles and tanks?

Judging by the alleged use of cyber wars in the Middle East in recent years, the answer is positive. It will be a slow process but it will happen, as this is the ultimate war tool. To attack the enemy, destroy him without him getting any warning or understanding what hit him.

In the Middle East, cyber wars are fought on a daily basis and the weapons are getting more advanced on a daily basis. The “weapons” of this new type of war are being developed in secret facilities and by teams of geniuses that will probably never hold an assault rifle but in spite of that, win many wars.