Assad’s options
This post is also available in: 
עברית (Hebrew)
By Avi Yariv
State leaders are not stupid people. They may be arrogant, sophisticated and hide their true agendas, yes, but they are not stupid. So why does Assad keep using chemical weapons? Doesn’t he have enough issues? Why is he trying to get the American Air Force to decimate his troops?
The most probable reason is intimidation – aimed at both rebels and the international community. According to what he’s trying to get across, if the conflict doesn’t end and if world powers intervene he will “lose it” and bring everyone down with him.
It looks like the intimidation is effective, at least as far as the international community is concerned – the world keeps standing idly by while women and children are massacred. On the other hand, it doesn’t seem to work on the rebels themselves, who already lost 100,000 people. It doesn’t matter if a child died after getting hit by nerve gas or by 7.62mm bullets – the child is still dead, and to the rebels it’s all the same. Nerve gas won’t make them back down and might even make them fight harder.
Assad’s logic is probably deeper than just intimidation and “losing it.” He might have decided that sacrificing a few pawns to American strikes is worth it, as long as it gets the international superpowers to keep each other busy with infighting while he clears his own back yard.
According to this theory an American strike against Syria, meant to stop any future use of non-conventional weapons, will actually force Iran to team up with Assad – because it’s clear that Iran’s own nuclear program will be next. Assad can force Iran to join him very easily, just by drawing Israel into a bloody conflict. The sooner and the bloodier – the better. A harsh Israeli response to a Syrian attack will in turn draw Iran into the conflict, one way or another.
I don’t believe Syria will actually succeed in drawing Iran into a conflict with Israel, not to mention the U.S., despite the Iranian leaders’ grandiose statements. On the other hand Assad will probably still try, and in fact he has already fired the first shot.
All this means that the Israeli home front has to be prepared. Home front preparedness is very important, and complacency might cost Israel dearly.
